{"id":8229,"date":"2024-04-05T02:33:11","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T02:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/?p=8229"},"modified":"2024-09-07T22:08:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-07T22:08:03","slug":"recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>El Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edsticas y Censos de Argentina acaba de publicar el informe de enero del Estimador Mensual de Actividad Econ\u00f3mica (EMAE), que sintetiza la din\u00e1mica de crecimiento para el pa\u00eds, abriendo el dato por sector econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El informe determina que la econom\u00eda argentina ha experimentado, en enero del 2024, una ca\u00edda de actividad econ\u00f3mica del 4.3 % respecto a igual mes del 2023, aunque la ca\u00edda se reduce a 1.2 % si tomamos el dato desestacionalizado frente al mes anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><div style=\"min-height:540px\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZRlX8\/embed.js?v=1\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZRlX8\/full.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si abrimos el dato por sector econ\u00f3mico, puede notarse que el sector que empuja a la econom\u00eda hacia arriba es agricultura, ganader\u00eda, caza y silvicultura, que en el 2023 sufri\u00f3 una importante sequ\u00eda. A ello se suma la miner\u00eda, y en menor nivel la educaci\u00f3n y la salud, que se han beneficiado de cierta desregulaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si bien el dato de febrero reci\u00e9n se conocer\u00e1 el 23 de febrero del 2024, disponemos de un informe, elaborado por la consultora privada de Orlando Ferreres, que mide en su indicador general de actividad un adelanto de lo que seguramente veremos en este pr\u00f3ximo informe del EMAE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ah\u00ed se puede dimensionar la recesi\u00f3n de estos dos primeros meses, acumulando una ca\u00edda del 6 %, donde se observa que la mayor ca\u00edda la sufre la construcci\u00f3n, con 15.1 %, seguido de la intermediaci\u00f3n financiera y la industria manufacturera, ambos con ca\u00eddas del 8.1 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><div style=\"min-height:442px\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZFOBL\/embed.js?v=1\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZFOBL\/full.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La buena noticia, sin embargo, se observa en la serie desestacionalizada, donde el IGA mostr\u00f3 un rebote del 0.1 % respecto al mes anterior. Cabe se\u00f1alar que esta subida es la primera que ocurre, luego de cuatro datos negativos consecutivos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En esta recuperaci\u00f3n, de nuevo, se observa el impulso del agro y la miner\u00eda, aunque tambi\u00e9n recupera rentabilidad el sector de electricidad, gas y agua. El relevamiento de expectativas de mercado que elabora el Banco Central de la Rep\u00fablica Argentina, recogiendo predicciones de escenarios de consultores privados, se\u00f1ala que el primer trimestre cerrar\u00eda con una ca\u00edda del 3.7 %, aunque ya el segundo trimestre solo caer\u00eda 0.2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><div style=\"min-height:518px\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1f47b\/embed.js?v=2\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1f47b\/full.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En un escenario optimista donde se aprueba la Ley Bases, se firma el pacto de mayo, contin\u00faa el descenso en la inflaci\u00f3n y, m\u00e1s a\u00fan, si se levanta el cepo cambiario, la Argentina tendr\u00eda un segundo semestre de rebote de actividad que podr\u00eda ser muy significativo para revertir la estanflaci\u00f3n que hered\u00f3 del gobierno anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si ahora analizamos las predicciones de los consultores privados en el REM, se pueden ver las buenas expectativas para recuperar el crecimiento del 2025 en adelante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><div style=\"min-height:642px\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VTuva\/embed.js?v=1\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VTuva\/full.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[671,672],"tema":[],"class_list":["post-8229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categoria","tag-emae","tag-iga"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico | UFM Reform Watch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"UFM Reform Watch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-05T02:33:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-09-07T22:08:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Adrian-Ravier-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"reformwatch\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Adrian-Ravier-3.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"reformwatch\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/\",\"name\":\"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico | UFM Reform Watch\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-04-05T02:33:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-09-07T22:08:03+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/b393cc0a83a805d001d74015c76a5c9f\"},\"description\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/\",\"name\":\"UFM Reform Watch\",\"description\":\"UFM Reform Watch de Milei 2023-2027\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/b393cc0a83a805d001d74015c76a5c9f\",\"name\":\"reformwatch\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/24d9aff18740c03ed606366c8f581799619a9b21b4620b2c67743f3f17fb5181?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/24d9aff18740c03ed606366c8f581799619a9b21b4620b2c67743f3f17fb5181?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"reformwatch\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/author\/reformwatch\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico | UFM Reform Watch","description":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/","og_locale":"es_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico","og_description":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?","og_url":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/","og_site_name":"UFM Reform Watch","article_published_time":"2024-04-05T02:33:11+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-09-07T22:08:03+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":630,"url":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Adrian-Ravier-3.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"reformwatch","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico","twitter_description":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?","twitter_image":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Adrian-Ravier-3.jpg","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"reformwatch","Tiempo de lectura":"3 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/","url":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/","name":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico | UFM Reform Watch","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-04-05T02:33:11+00:00","dateModified":"2024-09-07T22:08:03+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/b393cc0a83a805d001d74015c76a5c9f"},"description":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 nos revela el \u00faltimo informe del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Censos sobre la econom\u00eda argentina en enero de 2024?","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"es","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/recuperara-argentina-crecimiento-economico\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Portada","item":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"C\u00f3mo recuperar\u00e1 la Argentina el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#website","url":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/","name":"UFM Reform Watch","description":"UFM Reform Watch de Milei 2023-2027","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/b393cc0a83a805d001d74015c76a5c9f","name":"reformwatch","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es","@id":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/24d9aff18740c03ed606366c8f581799619a9b21b4620b2c67743f3f17fb5181?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/24d9aff18740c03ed606366c8f581799619a9b21b4620b2c67743f3f17fb5181?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"reformwatch"},"url":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/author\/reformwatch\/"}]}},"meta_box":{"destacado":"0","cadep_autor":["3302"],"post_concept":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8229"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8237,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8229\/revisions\/8237"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8229"},{"taxonomy":"tema","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tema?post=8229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}