{"id":8414,"date":"2024-06-08T18:38:11","date_gmt":"2024-06-08T18:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/?p=8414"},"modified":"2024-09-07T21:59:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-07T21:59:53","slug":"luz-al-final-del-tunel-economico-para-la-argentina-de-milei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/2024\/luz-al-final-del-tunel-economico-para-la-argentina-de-milei\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfLuz al final del t\u00fanel econ\u00f3mico para la Argentina de Milei?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La econom\u00eda argentina se encuentra en una profunda recesi\u00f3n. Los indicadores de nuestro monitor de actividad econ\u00f3mica no dejan lugar a dudas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, es posible que lo peor de la recesi\u00f3n est\u00e9 empezando a quedar atr\u00e1s. Si analizamos los indicadores adelantados de actividad econ\u00f3mica y calculamos su cambio intermensual, podemos analizar que varios de ellos se encuentran al alza, entre los cuales, mencionamos lo siguiente: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La producci\u00f3n industrial de abril ha crecido por primera vez desde septiembre de 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Producci\u00f3n industrial (IPI) de Argentina\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-0i5Q8\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/0i5Q8\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"467\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>Por otra parte, la actividad en el sector de la construcci\u00f3n est\u00e1 siendo una de las m\u00e1s castigadas por la decisi\u00f3n del gobierno de Milei de congelar los gastos de inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica. A pesar de los malos datos interanuales en construcci\u00f3n, mensualmente la actividad creci\u00f3 por primera vez desde julio de 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Actividad sector construcci\u00f3n en Argentina\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-NhULK\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NhULK\/7\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"467\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();<\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A pesar de la paralizaci\u00f3n en la actividad de construcci\u00f3n, el despacho de cemento en Argentina ha repuntado ligeramente en el \u00faltimo mes (en abril, t\u00edpicamente, disminuye el despacho de cemento con respecto al mes anterior).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Despacho mensual de cemento en Argentina\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-Q7cU0\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Q7cU0\/16\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"480\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>Las toneladas transportadas en ferrocarril ya se encuentran por encima del nivel mostrado en 2023, aunque todav\u00eda muy por debajo de los valores de 2022 y 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Carga ferroviaria en Argentina\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-rogvK\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/rogvK\/9\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"467\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>Es todav\u00eda pronto para saber si Argentina empieza a salir de la recesi\u00f3n. Muchos de estos indicadores podr\u00edan haber repuntado simplemente por un efecto base y rebote. Y es que unas ca\u00eddas muy pronunciadas en los indicadores econ\u00f3micos usualmente muestran rebotes que podemos confundir con una recuperaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-right has-white-color has-vivid-red-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-668de397d657cd3def15d4e7d254a870 is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Muchos de estos indicadores podr\u00edan haber repuntado simplemente por un efecto base y rebote. Aunque tambi\u00e9n es posible que lo peor de la recesi\u00f3n est\u00e9 empezando a quedar atr\u00e1s<\/p>\n<cite>Daniel Fern\u00e1ndez<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>En siguientes entregas de esta nota de actualidad econ\u00f3mica veremos si la din\u00e1mica de estos indicadores se mantiene o siguen con una tendencia a la baja. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n sobre la actividad econ\u00f3mica de Argentina, actualizada cada semana, visite nuestro <a href=\"https:\/\/milei.ufm.edu\/es\/monitor-macroeconomico\/\">monitor de actividad econ\u00f3mica.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Al mes de junio, los indicadores de nuestro monitor de actividad econ\u00f3mica de Argentina nos dicen que la recesi\u00f3n est\u00e1 empezando a quedar atr\u00e1s. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"tema":[],"class_list":["post-8414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categoria"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfLuz al final del t\u00fanel econ\u00f3mico para la Argentina de Milei? 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